Drones, Mines and a Bridge to China: Kim Jong Un’s Leverage Season
A surprise trip to China, a drone push, a record $6.3 billion crypto theft from Binance blamed on North Korean hackers and a mine dispute on the DMZ all landed in the same fortnight. Read together, they show Kim building leverage on every front before any return to talks with Washington.
Read the analysis → October 29, 2026Machado Comes Home: Is Venezuela Heading for an Election or a Managed Transition?
María Corina Machado is back in Venezuela, and Delcy Rodríguez called it a show. We look at the US roadmap toward a 2027 vote, who really holds power, and why the order of reforms decides whether this is a transition or a rebrand.
Read the analysis → October 22, 2026Pole Position, Frontline: Can Formula 1 Buy Rwanda Legitimacy While Its War in Congo Rages?
Formula 1 is the crowning prize of Kagame’s sportswashing strategy. But US sanctions on Rwanda’s army, Kabila’s alliance with M23 and Congo’s campaign against Visit Rwanda may make the war next door the nail in the coffin.
Read the analysis → October 22, 2026Could the 2026 Midterms Be Overturned? The Talk, the Tactics and the Guardrails
Trump says he will accept the midterm results “if the elections are honest.” Bannon will not say. What is actually being said, the five routes to contest a result, and the guardrails in the way.
Read the analysis → September 15, 2026MBS's War Economy: How Saudi Arabia Is Paying for Conflict While Oil Prices Climb
Iran's strikes, a Houthi pipeline attack and record borrowing are testing Saudi Arabia's finances, even as a higher oil price works in MBS's favor.
Read the analysis → September 3, 2026How Dictators Stay in Power: Coup-Proofing, Patronage and Repression
Seizing power is the easy part. A look at the coup-proofing, patronage networks and information control that the political science literature finds again and again in durable authoritarian regimes.
Read the analysis → September 3, 2026How Dictators Come to Power: Four Recurring Paths
Coups, self-coups, hollowed-out elections and dynastic succession. A framework for the four main routes autocrats have used to seize power, with modern examples.
Read the analysis → September 3, 2026Friendly Strongmen: Why the West Props Up the Dictators It Claims to Oppose
Democracy promotion is one Western interest among several, and it consistently loses to security, energy and great power competition. A look at why some dictators draw sanctions and others draw partnership.
Read the analysis → August 21, 2026The Strongman Test: What’s Actually Happened to Executive Power Under Trump
Two attempted troop deployments under disputed legal authority, a Supreme Court loss, and 8,000 federal jobs stripped of civil-service protection. A sourced look at the real record, not the speculation.
Read the analysis → August 21, 2026Kagame’s Rwanda: The Miracle and the Price
Extreme poverty cut by a third, 8.9% GDP growth, and a Corruption Perceptions score that beats most of the region — alongside a $1 billion party business empire, a 99.18% election, an assassinated exile, and a war economy next door in Congo.
Read the analysis → August 21, 2026Kim’s Wager: How North Korea Is Trading Soldiers for Technology
Over 20,000 North Korean troops sent to fight for Russia, roughly 6,000 dead — and in exchange, the satellite, missile and submarine technology decades of sanctions were built to deny Kim Jong Un.
Read the analysis → August 18, 2026Venezuela After Maduro: Earthquakes, Oil and an Unsettled Transition
Seven months after the US captured Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela is being reshaped by a fragile political transition, a catastrophic earthquake, and a fight over who gets to profit from the world's largest oil reserves.
Read the analysis → August 18, 2026Cuba Under Pressure: Blackouts, a Blockade, and the Search for New Patrons
With Venezuelan oil cut off and a tightened US blockade in force, Cuba is enduring blackouts lasting up to 24 hours a day. Russia's promises have proven mostly rhetorical — China's help has been more concrete, but nowhere near enough to close the gap.
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