Ten months after US forces seized Nicolás Maduro, the woman who runs Venezuela is still a product of his regime, and the opposition leader whose movement says it won the 2024 vote is still barred from office. María Corina Machado’s return to Caracas on October 25 has forced a question Washington had preferred to postpone: is Venezuela heading toward a real election, or toward a managed transition that keeps chavismo’s machinery in place under a friendlier label?
A homecoming the government called a “show”
Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate who led the opposition into the disputed 2024 vote, announced her arrival with a short post: “I am here, with you.” Thousands of supporters lined roads from Lara state to Caracas, according to multiple outlets. It was her first time in the country in more than ten months, after a period in hiding and exile.
Interim president Delcy Rodríguez answered the next day. She called the return a “show,” accused Machado of harming Venezuela by seeking sanctions and foreign intervention, and said she hoped Machado would show “remorse and repentance,” Anadolu Agency reported. In the same breath she denied that political persecution exists in Venezuela. Machado’s party said she was ready to meet Rodríguez if there was a clear agenda. As of this writing, no meeting has been set.
Washington’s roadmap: slow, sequenced and on Rodríguez’s terms
The United States now shapes Venezuelan politics more directly than at any point in decades. Secretary of State Marco Rubio credited US backed talks between the interim government and part of the opposition for freeing hundreds of political prisoners and allowing exiles to come home, calling them Venezuela’s “best chance in thirty years.” Rubio also said Washington had asked the interim authorities to allow Machado back.
The sequence described by a senior State Department official, as reported by CiberCuba, runs like this: a new Supreme Court by the end of 2026, then a new National Electoral Council, and only then a declaration by Rodríguez of a permanent vacancy in the presidency. Under Venezuelan law that would trigger elections within six months, putting a vote in the second half of 2027. Trump, for his part, has backed Rodríguez, said Venezuela needs more time before elections, and called a possible Rodríguez versus Machado contest “interesting.”
Who actually holds power
The structural problem is that removing a dictator is not the same as removing a regime. Rodríguez was Maduro’s vice president, and the security services, the ruling party and much of the state apparatus that sustained Maduro are still in place. An interim leader who controls the courts and the electoral authority during a transition has enormous power to shape who can run and how. That is why the order of reforms matters: whoever appoints the new judges and electoral officials will influence the referees of the next vote.
Our earlier analysis, Venezuela After Maduro, described how oil revenue and an earthquake were testing the transition. The oil question has not gone away. The US has an oil arrangement with the interim government, which gives both sides an interest in stability that may not always align with speed toward elections.
A regional test case
Venezuela is being watched closely by the region’s other entrenched rulers. In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega has openly abandoned elections, and Cuba is struggling after losing Venezuelan oil, as we described in Cuba Under Pressure. If a post Maduro Venezuela produces a credible, competitive vote, it will be a rare example of an authoritarian system opening up after outside intervention. If the transition stalls, it will look more like a change of patron than a change of system.
The other side of the argument
There is a serious case for patience. Venezuela’s electoral system was built by Maduro and produced the 2024 result that the opposition’s own tally sheets contradicted. Rushing to a vote before replacing the electoral council and the courts could simply repeat that outcome. Rubio’s stated goal, elections in which “the losing side acknowledges that the process was fair,” requires institutions that do not yet exist.
Supporters of the current process also point to tangible gains: hundreds of prisoners released, exiles returning, and Machado herself able to enter the country and hold rallies. Rodríguez’s defenders argue she has kept the state functioning through an extraordinary shock, and that a negotiated transition, however imperfect, is safer than a confrontation that could split the security forces. Critics of Machado add that her calls for sanctions and intervention made her a polarizing figure for part of the country.
What to watch
First, whether Rodríguez agrees to meet Machado, and whether Vente Venezuela is brought into the talks. Second, the appointment of a new Supreme Court before the end of 2026, which is the first concrete milestone in the US roadmap. Third, whether the 15 year ban on Machado is lifted. Fourth, whether an election date emerges; the opposition has floated July 2027, while its negotiating delegation has mentioned late 2027 or early 2028. Finally, watch Washington: if Trump openly favors Rodríguez as a candidate, the transition will look less like democratization and more like a protectorate.
Sources
- Anadolu Agency: Venezuela’s acting president calls opposition leader’s return a ‘show’
- La Voce di New York (AP): Machado returns to Venezuela, pushes for new elections
- The Rio Times: Machado ready to meet Delcy Rodríguez
- CiberCuba: Trump hopes that Delcy Rodríguez will leave the presidency of Venezuela in 2027
- Euronews: María Corina Machado regresa del exilio y apuesta por el diálogo con Delcy Rodríguez